A key component of the study, which builds on a pilot version from 2022, is a population forecast for Prague through 2050 incorporating five potential scenarios based on factors such as migration, economic trends, and residential development growth. The projections estimate that Prague’s population could reach 1.66 million residents, with the highest scenario predicting up to 1.97 million. The study also assesses the current availability of public infrastructure and outlines future demands in eight key sectors: education, healthcare and social services, burial services, commerce, recreation, culture, and sports.

Strategic Urban Planning Based on Data

"For a long time, city authorities have only strengthened public infrastructure when it became critically insufficient. We are changing this approach by using data-driven, systematic planning in cooperation with all stakeholders—be it city districts, public institutions, or the private sector, which contributes to infrastructure development through our investor participation methodology. This significantly improves the quality of new developments and the overall livability of the city," explains Petr Hlaváček, Deputy Mayor of Prague for Urban and Strategic Development.

"This updated forecast builds on the pilot study and once again confirms that Prague will need not only a substantial increase in healthcare facilities and medical staff but also more senior housing and other social services. The city must prepare for this," adds Alexandra Udženija, Deputy Mayor for Social Affairs and Healthcare.

"The population forecast provides invaluable data for strategic planning in education. With these insights, we can better anticipate future needs and more effectively plan the development of schools. It is crucial that we follow these projections and remain adaptable. The data clearly show that we must take a long-term strategic approach to education planning to ensure that school capacities align with demographic trends, guaranteeing every child access to quality education," states Antonín Klecanda, Prague City Councilor for Education.

A Data-Driven Approach to Policy Making

The primary objective of the study is to provide city leadership with comprehensive data to inform policy decisions. Its findings will also contribute to updates of Prague’s Spatial Planning Documentation, strategic planning documents, and sector-specific policies.

"This forecast provides the city administration with hard data for urban planning and strategic decisions related to public infrastructure and services. The most significant update compared to the pilot version is in the Education chapter, where we incorporated new data sources to offer a more precise picture of current school capacities. We plan to update and refine the study annually to reflect new demographic and infrastructure changes as accurately as possible," says Ondřej Boháč, Director of IPR Prague.

Key Updates and New Features

The updated version of the Population and Public Amenities Forecast (2023–2050) remains largely consistent with the pilot study but includes several refinements based on feedback from city districts, Prague City Council representatives, and IPR Prague staff.

New additions include:

• An interactive web tool allowing the public and professionals to analyze project findings and compare infrastructure availability across city districts.
• A dedicated chapter on the "15-minute city" concept, highlighting accessibility to key services.
• Enhanced analysis of healthcare infrastructure, particularly the availability of clinics.
• A new chapter on sports infrastructure, evaluating access to sports facilities and swimming pools.
• A demographic forecast for selected municipalities in the Central Bohemian Region, recognizing their reliance on Prague’s infrastructure and services.

The Education chapter saw the most significant updates, including:

• Revised age distribution data for children attending different school types.
• A new analysis of pedestrian access to kindergartens and primary schools.
• Updated capacity assessments for secondary schools.
• Corrections to official school capacity figures, which was previously based on Ministry of Education registry data and often did not reflect real-world constraints. In 2023, city districts provided updated information on the actual capacities of kindergartens and primary schools, which were incorporated into the study.

Further Refinements in 2024
During fall 2024, IPR Prague will collect real capacity data directly from school representatives, which will be used to further refine the next update.

The full analysis is available here.